World Predictor

2017年に何が起こるのだろうか？未来を予測し、その結果を参照してください！

Predict which events are the most likely to happen in 2017. Hundreds of events in several different categories including: Politics, Economics, Entertainment, Sports and Science & Technology. More events are added continuously. See the probability of each event, calculated from your and others predictions.

The wisdom of the crowd is the idea that a large group of people can make better predictions than a single expert. Collecting a huge number of answers allows you to even out the inevitable noise and emotional investment that comes with a single answer. Predictor 2017 aims to predict the probability of future events by takes advantage of this phenomenon. Fast and addictive, it collects a huge amount of data.

The app works by emulating a prediction market: the "higher" button equates “buying” while the "lower" button equates “selling". The probability of an event is calculated using Hanson’s logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR) which simulates the probability (or price) an event would have if it was traded on a market.