Management Reserve Fund

“管理区”基金量化 - 使用二项分布

When quantitative risk analysis is performed for project cost contingency in capital project world, discrete risks are often ignored as focuses are often on risky items with the "continuous distribution". Those independent, uncorrelated and rare-event driven risks, however, often than not are the culprits that throw the projects upside down. To compensate and to increase the probability of project success, the Management Reserve Fund hence is generated in addition to project contingency.

How to properly capture the effects of those discrete risks and their impacts on projects' outcome, what methodology should be used to document and simulate these types of risks are the combination of arts and sciences. The outcome of the simulation This set of presentation just provides illustrations with real case studies to showcase the methods and techniques for this application.